Abstract: This study sought to analyze the projection of the price of the basic food basket in Fortaleza between January 1994 and May 2023, in addition to verifying the hypothesis of the influence of rainfall on the predicted value of the basic food basket. Monthly rainfall data were obtained from the Ceará Foundation for Meteorology and Hydric Resources (FUNCEME). The series of prices and minimum wages were obtained from the Inter-Union Department of Statistics and Socioeconomic Studies (DIEESE). The values were indexed by the INPC of IBGE and converted into USD of May 2023. The average values, coefficients of variation and geometric growth rates of the annual minimum wage, the average annual price of basic food and rainfall were estimated. An integrated......
Key Word: Cost of food; rainfall instability; Seasonality; Poverty
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